<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
    <title>Unexpected Value</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/" />
    <link rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/atom.xml" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2007-08-18://2</id>
    <updated>2008-09-10T21:04:53Z</updated>
    <subtitle>Random Ramblings that might be +EV</subtitle>
    <generator uri="http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/">Movable Type Publishing Platform 4.0</generator>

<entry>
    <title>Walmart?  Not so evil.</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/09/walmart-not-so-evil.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.46</id>

    <published>2008-09-10T18:28:46Z</published>
    <updated>2008-09-10T21:04:53Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[Well.&nbsp; At least they are playing along with project subsize me: Abstract: &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; We estimate the impacts of Wal-Mart and warehouse club retailers on height-adjusted body weight and overweight and obesity status, finding robust evidence that non-grocery selling Wal-Marts reduce...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Health" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Unintended Consequences" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="projectsubsizeme" label="Project Subsize Me" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="walmart" label="WalMart" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[Well.&nbsp; At least they are <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1263316">playing along with project subsize me</a>:<br /><br /><strong>
</strong><blockquote><strong><font face="Myriad Roman, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif;" size="2">Abstract: </font>
</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<br /><font face="Myriad Roman, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif;" size="2">
We estimate the impacts of Wal-Mart and warehouse club retailers on
height-adjusted body weight and overweight and obesity status, finding
robust evidence that non-grocery selling Wal-Marts reduce weight while
grocery-selling Wal-Marts and warehouse clubs either reduce weight or
have no effect. The effects appear strongest for women, minorities,
urban residents, and the poor. We then examine the effects of these
retailers on exercise, food and alcohol consumption, smoking, and
eating out at restaurants in order to explain the results for weight.
Most notably, the evidence suggests that all three types of stores
increase consumption of fruits and vegetables while reducing
consumption of foods high in fat. This is consistent with the thesis
that Wal-Mart increases real incomes through its policy of "Every Day
Low Prices," making healthy food more affordable, as opposed to the
thesis that cheap food prices make us eat more. </font><br /></blockquote>
In all seriousness, WalMart does some pretty abhorent things,&nbsp; but the company isn't all evil.&nbsp; Sam Walton would have been disgusted at the human resources practices that have gotten the company in trouble in the last decade.&nbsp; But in shaking their fists at big corporations, people tend to forget that they have pretty big benefits.&nbsp; The fact that WalMart makes a ton of stuff affordable to people with lower incomes is NOT trivial.<br /><br />Hat tip to <a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/09/wal-mart-and-ob.html">Tyler Cowen</a>.<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>209.8</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/09/2098.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.45</id>

    <published>2008-09-09T18:32:59Z</published>
    <updated>2008-09-09T18:35:05Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[That's the scale today.&nbsp; I think I am getting lucky and weighing myself at the low peaks of the volatility in weight.&nbsp; Good for motivation!I know it's all just in my head, but I feel spritelier when playing basketball....]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Health" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="projectsubsizeme" label="Project Subsize Me" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[That's the scale today.&nbsp; I think I am getting lucky and weighing myself at the low peaks of the volatility in weight.&nbsp; Good for motivation!<br /><br />I know it's all just in my head, but I feel spritelier when playing basketball.<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Day 3</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/09/day-3.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.44</id>

    <published>2008-09-06T00:43:29Z</published>
    <updated>2008-09-06T00:46:47Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[People at work obviously hate me.&nbsp; This is our kitchen table. Bastards.I'm still clean though....]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Health" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="projectsubsizeme" label="Project Subsize Me" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[People at work obviously hate me.&nbsp; This is our kitchen table.<br /><br /><span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><a href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/images/IMG_0072.html" onclick="window.open('http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/images/IMG_0072.html','popup','width=1200,height=1600,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false"><img src="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/images/IMG_0072-thumb-120x160.jpg" alt="IMG_0072.JPG" class="mt-image-left" style="margin: 0pt 20px 20px 0pt; float: left;" height="160" width="120" /></a></span><br /> <div><br /><br /><br /><br />Bastards.<br /><br />I'm still clean though.<br /></div>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Subsize Me Day 2</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/09/subsize-me-day-2.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.43</id>

    <published>2008-09-04T18:37:13Z</published>
    <updated>2008-09-04T18:56:19Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[I weighed myself this morning.&nbsp; A smart person would have weighed himself before day 1.&nbsp; I'll spare you the full-body pics because weight-watchers porn is icky. Yesterday went fine, except I never got a chance to eat dinner -- I...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Health" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="projectsubsizeme" label="Project Subsize Me" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[I weighed myself this morning.&nbsp; A smart person would have weighed himself before day 1.&nbsp; I'll spare you the full-body pics because weight-watchers porn is icky.<br /><br /><span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><a href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/IMG_0070.html" onclick="window.open('http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/IMG_0070.html','popup','width=1200,height=1600,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false"><img src="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/assets_c/2008/09/IMG_0070-thumb-120x160.jpg" alt="" class="mt-image-left" style="margin: 0pt 20px 20px 0pt; float: left;" height="160" width="120" /></a></span><br /> <div>Yesterday went fine, except I never got a chance to eat dinner -- I played a double-header in my basketball at 7, which means that I didn't really want to eat at the normal dinner time.&nbsp; By the time I was home and showered, it was 10, I wasn't very hungry.&nbsp; My dinner ended up being about a dozen cashews.<br /><br />For this reason, I suspect the 213.4 weight is a few pounds light -- I probably haven't re-hydrated fully yet either.<br /><br />Today is going awesome.&nbsp; I had a bit of cheese for breakfast (no fruit in the fridge yet).&nbsp; Further, and far more significantly, some well-meaning scum here at the office bought a bunch of boxes full of Krispy Kremes, but I am impervious.&nbsp; Also, our office provides free lunch every Thursday.&nbsp; Today they provided pizza.&nbsp; I am also immune to that but I'd like to give a big FU shout out to the cosmic powers that are trying to derail this project.&nbsp; At least they got a salad, so I'm all over that and will probably grab a little roast chicken from the deli on the corner.<br /></div>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Project Subsize Me begins</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/09/project-subsize-me-begins.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.42</id>

    <published>2008-09-03T19:40:42Z</published>
    <updated>2008-09-04T18:57:39Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[I'm about 30 pounds overweight.Ok, I'm about 40 pounds over what the BMI will tell you is ideal for a 6 foot male.&nbsp; But, seriously, screw that.&nbsp; I'd be happy at 188 lbs, and the BMI has all sorts of...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Basketball" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Health" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="basketball" label="Basketball" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="health" label="Health" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="subsizeme" label="Subsize Me" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[I'm about 30 pounds overweight.<br /><br />Ok, I'm about 40 pounds over what the BMI will tell you is ideal for a 6 foot male.&nbsp; But, seriously, screw that.&nbsp; I'd be happy at 188 lbs, and the BMI has all sorts of problems with it.&nbsp; I know that "Big boned" is an excuse, but I also know that even when I did weigh 185, I had broad shoulders and I looked skinny.<br /><br />The main problem for the last year or two has just been my attitude towards food.&nbsp; It's all classic, straight-out-of-the-textbooks addictive behavior.&nbsp; I eat more shitty food "in secret", i.e. when my wife isn't around to complain about it (as an aside, I don't respond well to her complaints about my eating habits, and the fact that she happens to be completely right doesn't seem to matter much.&nbsp; I doubt this is just the irritability that is also classic behavior in a junkie, but rather my own irrational hatred of when people point out that I am being stupid).&nbsp; I feel guilty about certain meals.&nbsp; I get sugar lows.<br /><br />I keep making half-hearted attempts to start eating better (I won't call it dieting), but there are several problems with my previous attempts:<br /><br /><ol><li>&nbsp;They have been undocumented and unpublic, so I have no fear of failure/embarrassment/etc to keep me 'honest'</li><li>number 1) is also a common part of addictive personality behavior patterns, in that it is indicative of a failure to admit that there's something wrong</li><li>my goals have always been just "to lose weight"</li></ol>Hopefully this attempt will go more smoothly, because this time:<br /><br /><ul><li>I intend to document it on the blog.&nbsp; If I don't, you will all just have one more little bit of proof that I am full of shit.</li><li>Documenting this is proof that 2) is not a problem here.<br /></li><li>My goal isn't (just, anyway) to lose weight.&nbsp; I want to be less worried about my health (I'm old enough to start worrying about my heart, etc).&nbsp; I want my back to hurt less.&nbsp; I want to be able to jump again -- these days when I play ball, I go up for layups and usually end up having to heave the ball high and far because I am about a foot further away from the hoop than my brain expects me to be, and it isn't just from getting old.&nbsp; I want to be free of headaches.&nbsp; I want to sleep better.&nbsp; I want to not breathe as hard while running up and down the court.&nbsp; I want to not feel guilty after eating.&nbsp; I want to have more energy.&nbsp; I want the elastic bands at the top of my underwear to stay straight instead of being bent in half by the flab in my belly.&nbsp; Wow, just typing all these makes me feel more motivated.</li></ul>So, today I started Project Subsize Me.&nbsp; Sort of the opposite of Supersize Me as I won't be eating much at Micky Ds.&nbsp; My food goals include:<br /><br /><ul><li>No refined sugar. I mean this in a zen way.&nbsp; I'm not going to boycott stuff that has sugar because that is 80% of the supermarket.&nbsp; I mean no products whose main ingredient is refined sugar.&nbsp; Starburst, chocolate, ice cream, etc.</li><li>No fried foods.&nbsp; Chips, Fries, fried fish, etc, etc.</li><li>No white bread (includes pizza which is basically a lotta white bread)<br /></li><li>No donuts, cake, etc, made from white bread, even if they aren't already disqualified because of the whole sugar thing</li></ul>and<br /><br /><ul><li>More chicken, lamp, fish, and less beef.&nbsp; In fact, as little beef as possible although giving up steak entirely is probably wishful thinking.</li><li>Getting a bit of fruit for breakfast in the morning</li><li>Drinking more water and less soda (probabably the hardest part of this list as I'm addicted to diet pepsi)</li><li>cooking more, eating out less<br /></li></ul>Today actually started pretty MEH because I missed breakfast, but this is certainly better than getting a donut for breakfast.&nbsp; At lunch I had some spicy chicken w/ salad from a nearby terriyaki joint.&nbsp; I didn't get the sugary terriyaki sauce and I didn't get the (icky, btw) sweet dressing they usually put on the salad.&nbsp; At least it wasn't a fried meal or a fatty Quizno's sandwich.<br /><br />More updates to come.&nbsp; If I slack off, I suck.<br /><br />And for futher inspiration, see <a href="http://basketbawful.blogspot.com/2008/09/white-man-jump-challenge-part-1.html">another ballers attempt to increase his vertical</a>.<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Wow.</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/08/wow.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.41</id>

    <published>2008-08-30T21:59:44Z</published>
    <updated>2008-08-30T22:03:26Z</updated>

    <summary>The accusation that John McCain, a former prisoner of war, would pick an inexperienced running mate, is absurd.But then again, this is what her supporters have to say:I realize, of course, that she&apos;s totally unqualified to be President at this...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[The accusation that John McCain, a former prisoner of war, would pick an inexperienced running mate, is absurd.<br /><br />But then again, this is <a href="http://theamericanscene.com/2008/08/29/ru-experienced">what her supporters have to say</a>:<br /><br /><blockquote>I realize, of course, that she's totally unqualified to be President at
this point in time. If McCain were to die in February 2009, I hope
Palin would have the good sense to appoint someone who is more ready to
be President to be her Vice President, on the understanding that she
would then resign and be appointed Vice President by her successor.
(Lest anyone say that this is an absurd, unconstitutional or
undemocratic scenario, recognize that this is pretty much what would
happen in a Parliamentary system where, if the head of government dies,
a successor is chosen by the party.) Palin is absolutely not ready to
be President now, but that is a problem that is very easily dealt with
if she is and the governing party want to do so.<br /><br /></blockquote><br />Wait, this is your <b>endorsement?</b> In the words of John Stewart, "You're fucking kidding me, right?"<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>People are stupid: Timberwolves beat reporters edition</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/06/people-are-stupid-timberwolves.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.40</id>

    <published>2008-06-27T18:39:18Z</published>
    <updated>2008-06-27T19:04:40Z</updated>

    <summary>Tom Powers (hat tip to Truehoop) saysAs midnight approached, it was announced that Wolves vice president Kevin McHale still was working on &apos;a deal&apos; and wouldn&apos;t be able to make an appearance in the pressroom for some time. We all...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[Tom Powers (hat tip to <a href="http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-32-376/First-Cup--Friday.html">Truehoop</a>) <a href="http://www.twincities.com/ci_9714121?nclick_check=1">says</a><br /><br /><blockquote>As midnight approached, it was announced that Wolves vice president Kevin McHale still was working on 'a deal' and wouldn't be able to make an appearance in the pressroom for some time. We all groaned. His deals usually suck. No one put it past him to trade Mayo in the middle of the night. As it turned out, we were right. His deal sucked. He traded Mayo in the middle of the night. There is no hope for this franchise.<br /></blockquote>For the background, the Timberwolves drafted O.J. Mayo, <a href="http://www.draftexpress.com/article/2008-Win-Scores-NBA-Draft-Preview-2932">a player who scores a lot but kind of sucks</a> (you all know by now that scoring <i>lots</i> isn't as important as scoring <i>efficiently</i>, right?&nbsp; And that scoring a lot very inefficiently is even worse than not scoring at all?&nbsp; Right?), with the third pick of the draft, then traded him, Antoine Walker (another guy who scores a lot very inefficiently), Marko Jaric (the most overpaid player in the league), and Greg Buckner (who?) for Mike Miller (a guy who scores a lot very efficiently....HMMMMM....), Kevin Love (a guy who scored very efficiently in college, and grabbed a ton of boards...HMMMMM....), and some other dudes with big contracts that cancel out Jaric and Buckner's bad contracts.<br /><br />And Tom thinks this sucks.&nbsp; Well, Tom, you are an idiot.&nbsp; This isn't really knews to any twin cities sports fans; the man has let his blind hatred of Kevin McHale (who, in all fairness, has made some doozies in terms of stupid moves) color every article he ever writes about the Wolves for years now.&nbsp; But this deal is good.&nbsp; No, wait, this deal is AWESOME.&nbsp; This deal is moneyball-like goodness.<br /><br />The wolves just replaced two guys with negative win scores, a rookie who's WAY overrated, and an overpaid journeyman who's a little sub-par with probably the best small forward in the west (yes, I said that, and yes, I know Lamar Odom plays small forward) who's only 28 years old, and a rookie who will get paid less (yay, pay scale!), rebound more, score more efficiently, defend tougher, and knows how to win.&nbsp; In fact, short of drafting Kevin Garnett, this is by far the best deal McHale or any other Wolves exec has ever done.<br /><br />And I want to get some predictions on this blog here because I am SO going to enjoy pointing back to this blog post in 2-3 years:<br /><br /><ol><li>OJ Mayo is going to score a lot of points in the league, and convince a lot of guys that he is a star player.&nbsp; But like Carmelo Anthony, Jamal Crawford, and other innefficient scorers with bad assists-turnover ratios and poor rebound rates, his teams won't win as long as he's the focal point.</li><li>The Timberwolves will not only win more than they did last year, they will win substantially more than the Grizzlies.</li><li>Kevin Love is going to be one of those players who does not score a ton of points, but for some really strange reason guys like Tom Powers will never quite figure out, his teams will compete well anyway.</li><li>Timberwolves fans are going to freaking LOVE Mike Miller.</li></ol>Seriously, Tom, you pick for "potential".&nbsp; I'll pick the guy who scored 16 pts on 50% shooting (43%, yeah, that's right, FORTYTHREE PERCENT from beyond the ard) while grabbing 7 boards (as a small forward!) and dishing out 3.4 assists (as a small forward!).&nbsp; Potential can kiss my ass.<br /><br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>People are stupid.  Or maybe just John McCain is.</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/06/people-are-stupid-or-maybe-jus.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.39</id>

    <published>2008-06-26T18:59:26Z</published>
    <updated>2008-06-26T19:22:26Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[Wow.&nbsp; He's getting so stupid that he's endanger of defying a different law of economics, namely that People Aren't THAT Stupid.Witness, from Bloomberg, via hat tip to Greg Mankiw:[Senator McCain] has shown increasing disdain for any economist who questions his...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Economics" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="People are Stupid" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Politics" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[Wow.&nbsp; He's getting so stupid that he's endanger of defying a different law of economics, namely that <a href="http://www.smallparty.org/yoram/humor/mankiw.pdf">People Aren't THAT Stupid</a>.<br /><br />Witness, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&amp;sid=aJXBcBPLYnWY&amp;refer=us">from Bloomberg</a>, via hat tip to <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/06/dont-trust-anyone-who-cant-see-into.html">Greg Mankiw</a>:<br /><br /><blockquote>[Senator McCain] has shown increasing disdain for any economist who questions his policy prescriptions. Earlier this month, he lashed out at critics of his proposal for a summer gas-tax holiday.<br /><br />"You know the economists?'' McCain said June 12 at Federal Hall, near the New York Stock Exchange. "They're the same ones that didn't predict this housing crisis we're in. They're the same ones that didn't predict the dot-com meltdown. They're the same ones that didn't predict the inflation that's staring us in the face today.''<br /><br /></blockquote>Where to start.&nbsp; So much stupidity.&nbsp; Make him stop.<br /><br />OK, first.&nbsp; If you say shit like "The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should" all the time, then maybe you should either a) shut the hell up about economics or b) check your facts really hard before you go spouting bullshit about the subject.<br /><br />Second, and this is a little related to the first point about being able to check your facts if you don't STFU, As it happens, John's statement is simply false.&nbsp; There are several very prominent economists that did indeed predict the housing crisis we're in, among them <a href="http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press">Dean Baker</a>, who is, understandably, endlessly frustrated by all the idiots in the press and politics who keep saying that no one could have seen this coming, and Paul Krugman, whose predictions were not as dire as Dean's but definitely forbode some bad times for homeowners.&nbsp; Furthermore, there were a ton of economists, hell, there were a ton of journalists, who saw the dot-com meltdown coming.&nbsp; I mean, they didn't know exactly when, but they sure as hell knew that companies with negative net income were not worth $5 billion valuations.<br /><br />And last, as Greg points out, let's be clear, John, that there is no magical other group of people who predicted all these things perfectly.&nbsp; But nice straw man attempt.<br /><br />Oh, yeah, and WTF at the Bloomberg article NOT POINTING ANY OF THIS OUT AS BULLSHIT.&nbsp; It ends with the above quote as if this were some nugget of maverick wisdom.&nbsp; Seriously, when are the press going to do their jobs and ask the man some hard questions.&nbsp; On second thought, how about some questions that any competent college grad could answer?<br />]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Search less.  Understand more.</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/06/search-less-understand-more.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.38</id>

    <published>2008-06-25T17:26:42Z</published>
    <updated>2008-06-25T17:39:35Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[Sometime very soon my favorite company EVRI is going to help you figure this InterWebs thing out.&nbsp; Scoot on over to the home page and sign up for the beta!Read the blog for a much better explanation than I can...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Links" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[Sometime very soon my favorite company EVRI is going to help you figure this InterWebs thing out.&nbsp; Scoot on over to <a href="http://www.evri.com/">the home page</a> and sign up for the beta!<br /><br /><a href="http://blog.evri.com/">Read the blog for a much better explanation</a> than I can offer of what we've all been secretly brewing.<br /><br /><span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="evribanner.jpg" src="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/images/evribanner.jpg" class="mt-image-left" style="margin: 0pt 20px 20px 0pt; float: left;" height="124" width="478" /></span><br /> <div><br /></div>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>People are stupid:  John McCain and Batteries</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/06/people-are-stupid-john-mccain.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.37</id>

    <published>2008-06-24T21:37:02Z</published>
    <updated>2008-06-24T21:52:47Z</updated>

    <summary>I imagine good ol&apos; John will become a recurring character in the people are stupid series, because, wow is that man dumb.Recently John decided to demonstrates how much he cares about the environment by offering a $300 million dollar prize...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Economics" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Ethanol is Evil" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="People are Stupid" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Politics" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[I imagine good ol' John will become a recurring character in the people are stupid series, because, wow is that man dumb.<br /><br />Recently John decided to demonstrates how much he cares about the environment by offering a $300 million dollar prize for anyone that invents a better car battery.<br /><br />Newsflash, idiot:&nbsp; anyone that invents a better car battery is set him/herself up for a shitload more than $300 million for it.<br /><br />As <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/%7Er/manifestdensitynet/%7E3/319001004/">Tom Lee points out</a>, via <a href="http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=06&amp;year=2008&amp;base_name=a_better_battery_or_a_better_c">hat tip to Ezra Klein</a>, it's not as if car companies are sitting around yelling at their R&amp;D departments to stop working on battery improvements.&nbsp; Seriously, John, I know <a href="http://www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com/">you are older than polyester</a>, but I know a lot of smart old guys, so I'm going to have to come to the conclusion that you aren't ignorant of economics 101 simply because you went to college before Economics existed, but rather because you are just plain old stupid.<br /><br />You want to help vs. global warming?&nbsp; Offer a billion dollar prize to somebody who can figure out how to reverse the damage done to the ozone layer.&nbsp; Because last time I checked, there is no huge market for that particular development, which means that anyone smart enough to do it isn't going to "waste their time" on that particular project.<br /><br />By the way, it completely stuns me that the mainstream press let's John McCain get away with saying really, really genuinely stupid things all the time, particularly on things like economics, a subject in which he has already admitted to having no expertise whatsoever, without just once (one ****ing time!) calling him out for it.&nbsp; I mean, Hillary got more than her share of shit for supporting the gas tax holiday (which was a very stupid idea), but John, <i>who came up with it in the first place</i>, didn't have to face one single reporter asking him "Can you name any economists who support this proposal?".&nbsp; Not one journalist.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Seriously?<br /><br /><span class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image"><img alt="PicardWtf.jpg" src="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/images/PicardWtf.jpg" class="mt-image-left" style="margin: 0pt 20px 20px 0pt; float: left;" height="227" width="306" /></span><br /> <div><br /></div>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>People are Stupid, ESPN Edition</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/06/people-are-stupid-espn-edition.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.36</id>

    <published>2008-06-10T20:23:25Z</published>
    <updated>2008-06-10T20:42:52Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[The subject of fairness is a pretty big deal in economics research lately.&nbsp; So, this ESPN article making the case that poor Kobe's career so far has been unfair is, well, really freaking stupid.I mean, really?I'm forced to cite something...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[The subject of fairness is a pretty big deal in economics research lately.&nbsp; So, <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=hill/080610&amp;sportCat=nba">this ESPN article making the case that poor Kobe's career so far has been unfair</a> is, well, really freaking stupid.<br /><br />I mean, really?<br /><br />I'm forced to cite something else I read about fairness <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/05/so-you-want-things-to-be-fair.html">recently on Greg Mankiw's blog</a>, where he cites P.J. O'Rourke:<br /><br /><blockquote>This passage <a href="http://www.cato.org/pubs/catosletter/catosletterv6n2.pdf">from P.J. O'Rourke</a> sounded like a conversation I have often had with my children:<br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><blockquote><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">I
have a 10 year old at home, and she is always saying, "That's not
fair." When she says that, I say, "Honey, you're cute; that's not fair.
Your family is pretty well off; that's not fair. You were born in
America; that's not fair. Honey, you had better pray to God that things
don't start getting fair for you.<br /><br /></span></blockquote></span></blockquote>Let's try to apply this to Kobe.&nbsp; Bear with me because it's going to be really hard to find all the things that are similarly "unfair" for Kobe.&nbsp; Oh, wait, I mean it's going to be really hard to limit the unfair things to several.<br /><br />"Kobe, you've already won three titles and you are about the age Jordan was when he won his first.&nbsp; That's not fair.&nbsp; You are rich enough that whole rooms of full of rich people <span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span>have less money than you do.&nbsp; That's not fair.&nbsp; You were accused of rape not so long ago but not only were you acquitted, the public seems to have completely forgotten about it and now you have somehow acquired a pretty clean image.&nbsp; That's not fair.&nbsp; You were born American but got to grow up traveling in Europe and learn several languages.&nbsp; That's not fair.&nbsp; Kobe, you better pray to God that things don't start getting fair for you."<br /><span style="font-family: arial;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span>Seriously.&nbsp; Sports journalists, I know you suffer from some need to somehow make your stories seem more important than they really are (and I say that as a sports fan, for f***'s sake), but come on.&nbsp; A whole piece about how life has been hitting Kobe a little too hard?&nbsp; Really?&nbsp;&nbsp;  <br />]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>People are Stupid:  WSJ edition</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/06/people-are-stupid-wsj-edition.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.35</id>

    <published>2008-06-05T23:02:57Z</published>
    <updated>2008-06-05T23:36:36Z</updated>

    <summary>Wait...WHAT?I never anticipated applying the Bizarro-World version of the fourth principle of economics to Greg Mankiw himself.But today, Greg references the WSJ in his blog, in a manner that I can only presume means he agrees with the contents:Steve in...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Economics" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Finance" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="People are Stupid" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[Wait...WHAT?<br /><br />I never anticipated applying the <a href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/02/the-4th-principle-of-economics.html">Bizarro-World version of the fourth principle of economics</a> to Greg Mankiw himself.<br /><br />But today, <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2008/06/landsburg-on-tax-policy.html">Greg references the WSJ in his blog</a>, in a manner that I can only presume means he agrees with the contents:<br /><br /><blockquote><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121262362809746881.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries">Steve in the WSJ:</a><br />Like philanthropy, saving is an act of self-denial that enriches your neighbors (by leaving more goods available for them to consume). But unlike philanthropy, saving is punished by the tax system (via the taxes on interest, dividends, capital gains and inheritance). That's nuts. When you tax saving, you encourage people - wealthy people in particular - to spend more and grab a larger share of the consumption pie. "More consumption by the rich" should not be among the primary objectives of the tax code.<br /><br />The alternative is to tax consumption....you can easily implement a consumption tax with a Form 1040 that says: "How much did you earn this year? How much did you save? Now pay tax on the difference." And you can make that tax as progressive as you like.<br /></blockquote>At this point I have to say...what the hell?<br /><br />I know Greg is a smart guy (I'm not so sure about Steve), but this is...well...brain dead.<br /><br />Seriously, by consuming more, you "grab a larger share of the consumption pie".&nbsp; Who invents this drivel?<br /><br />Let me clue Steve and Greg in a little suttin'.&nbsp; When Jon Edwards "consumes" a $400 haircut, he may receive some emotional value, but his pie does not get any bigger (in fact, from an investment perspective this is a pretty fucking terrible deal for the former senator).&nbsp; <a href="http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20055262,00.html">When Paris Hilton buys a $5.9 Million house</a>, sure, her pie gets bigger.&nbsp; But so does the pie of her real estate broker.&nbsp; And the construction firm that built that house, and all the contractors that work for him, and all the laborers that work for the contractor.&nbsp; When a wealthy person buys a Porsche, his "pie" does not get bigger (again, the re-sale value on that brand new Bentley?&nbsp; Not so high).<br /><br />You want to know the easiest way to grab the biggest piece of the pie?&nbsp; Live way below your means and invest your capital in positive net-present-value investments instead of "wasting" it on consumption.&nbsp; Things you consume don't earn compound interest, most of the things you consume aren't assets at all, and the assets you do acquire through consumption can rarely be re-sold at book value.&nbsp; And yes, this is all true even after you account for capital gains taxes.&nbsp; Seriously, we learn this shit in Finance 101, Steve.&nbsp; And you work at the Journal.<br /><br />News flash:&nbsp; for those of us who <b>aren't</b> rich, it is in our best interests that richer people save, since that consumption drives the economy.&nbsp; We like the fact that wealthier people have incentives to eat at outrageously expensive restaurants and get very expensive haircuts and get very expensive cars/boats/houses.&nbsp; Because most of the people who waiter or cook at expensive restaurants aren't rich, most of the stylists at expensive salons aren't rich, and most of the laborers at Porsche or BMW aren't very rich, and their lives would sort of suck if the demand for their products dried up.&nbsp; And Steve's implication that I would be richer because there are more Porsches to go around (or, relatedly, because Porsches get cheaper because there is less demand) if all the rich people stopped consuming is more than laughable.<br /><br />Oh, it is entirely clear why Mr. Mankiw and Mr. Stevens <b>want</b> savings to be tax-free -- they are probably savvy with their money and do more saving than consuming (because they know that saving and investing leads to wealth, and consuming doesn't).&nbsp; And it is true that for the average american, who has way too much debt, saving more and consuming less would be very wise, and the government might do well to encourage that behavior among some income groups.&nbsp; But saying "Hey, that's unfair, look, the incentives for rich people is to buy lots of stuff and we all know that buying lots of stuff makes you even richer!" is, well, I'd say disingenuous but, are you kidding me?&nbsp; Steve, you're either being stupid or you are running a con job.<br /><br />If you want to be progressive, incentivize the poor to save and the rich to spend.&nbsp;&nbsp;  And don't give me any bullshit about how the markets need capital.&nbsp; The incentive scheme would have to be very perverse before wealthy investors would "spending their money on goodies" a better positive net-present-value investment than the stock market.<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Sports Journalists drive me nuts</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/06/sports-jounalists-drive-me-nut.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.34</id>

    <published>2008-06-05T17:09:07Z</published>
    <updated>2008-06-05T17:53:33Z</updated>

    <summary>From Truehoop&apos;s first cup today:Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News: &quot;Mitch Richmond knows: The single greatest common thread between Jordan and Bryant is their ability and hunger to destroy every opponent in their paths. Belittle Bryant&apos;s cold arrogance...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Basketball" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[From <a href="http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-32-276/First-Cup--Thursday.html">Truehoop's first cup today</a>:<br /><br /><blockquote><a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_9486546?nclick_check=1">Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News</a>: "Mitch Richmond knows: The single greatest common thread between Jordan and Bryant is their ability and hunger to destroy every opponent in their paths. Belittle Bryant's cold arrogance all you want. Call him selfish. Rail about his sense of entitlement. But you can't deny that Kobe and Jordan are the only two guards who have played the game like this. 'Both guys, when they've got you in a cage, they're going to keep you in there,' Richmond said this week. 'They're going to kill you and keep killing you until you're dead.'"<br /><br /></blockquote>O RLY?&nbsp; The "only two guards in the game" who were ever ridiculously cut-throat competitive?<br /><br />What the hell?&nbsp; I wonder Magic Johnson (or Dennis Johnson, or Kevin Johnson) agrees.&nbsp; Or Jerry West.&nbsp; Or Gary Payton.&nbsp; Or Isiah Thomas.<br /><br />So you really believe that because Kobe has won 3 titles that he's got a "killer instinct"?&nbsp; Where, prey freaking tell, has that instinct been then, since, oh, I don't know, &lt;b&gt;2002&lt;/b&gt;!?&nbsp; A year, by the way, where he got to play with Shaq in his prime.<br /><br />Kobe Bryant is good.&nbsp; Really good.&nbsp; But all this "best player in the game" bullshit is getting annoying, not because of any truth behind the statement, but because the arguments for it always seem to boil down to something like "I mean, look, you can see it in his EYES, man!"<br />]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>My job is a little less secret now</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/05/my-job-is-a-little-less-secret.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.33</id>

    <published>2008-05-29T16:53:30Z</published>
    <updated>2008-05-29T16:56:20Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[I've been working at a "stealthy" start-up for a while.&nbsp; When people ask me what I do, it's kind of hard to describe, because there's no product to point to yet.That's a little less difficult now.&nbsp; We presented at the...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
    <category term="evri" label="EVRI" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[I've been working at a "stealthy" start-up for a while.&nbsp; When people ask me what I do, it's kind of hard to describe, because there's no product to point to yet.<br /><br />That's a little less difficult now.&nbsp; <a href="http://d6.allthingsd.com/20080529/evri/">We presented at the "Allthings D" conference today</a>.<br /><br />Check it out.<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>OJ Mayo and the law of Demand</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/2008/05/oj-mayo-and-the-law-of-demand.html" />
    <id>tag:unexpected-value.pminton.org,2008://2.32</id>

    <published>2008-05-16T22:46:54Z</published>
    <updated>2008-05-16T23:16:06Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[Sigh.&nbsp; People really need to do some Econ 101.So, lately there has been a lot of stink that apparently OJ Mayo took money in the form of bribes from sports agents for the priviledge of representing him in the NBA...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>Patrick Minton</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Basketball" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Economics" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Sports Economics" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en-us" xml:base="http://unexpected-value.pminton.org/">
        <![CDATA[Sigh.&nbsp; People really need to do some Econ 101.<br /><br />So, lately there has been a lot of stink that apparently OJ Mayo took money in the form of bribes from sports agents for the priviledge of representing him in the NBA draft.&nbsp; Many people are aghast.&nbsp; And my reaction is:<br /><br />Are you people completely daft?<br /><br />Seriously, I'm not sure where you guys grew up, but in the world *I* live in, when you have a talent/skill/product that other people want really badly, then you charge money for it.&nbsp; Economics 101, baby.&nbsp; There's literally nothing immoral about this.&nbsp; I'm reminded very much of George Lucas' distribution deals when he made Star Wars: Episode 1.&nbsp; Standard industry practice is for film distributors to take a percentage of the film's ticket sales in return for distributing the film.&nbsp; This is a deal that most directors and distributors take because they don't always know how successful there film will be, so they worry about overpaying if they pay a flat fee for distribution.<br /><br />But George, however, knew quite well that the first Star Wars movie in 20 years was a guaranteed hit that would basically sell a trillion movie tickets.&nbsp; He told the distributors, "You can take $1 million or you can fuck off.&nbsp; That's the deal."<br /><br />OJ Mayo is saying "I know you usually get sweet royalties from guys who are hoping they crack the lottery.&nbsp; But I know what I'm worth.&nbsp; So give me $500k or fuck off.&nbsp; That's the deal."<br /><br />Economics ONE OH ONE, baby.<br /><br />Why shouldn't athletes be allowed to charge whatever they want for the privilege of representing them?&nbsp; Because Sports Agents don't want them to?&nbsp; WHAT?&nbsp; I don't want to pay for my coffee at Starbucks either.&nbsp; I think it's an outrage that they charge money for it.&nbsp; Welcome to the real world.&nbsp; I found it very amusing that <a href="http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-32-174/David-Falk-Explains.html">David Falk is quoted as saying</a>:<br /><br /><blockquote>It's not competition based on merit. It's competition based on improper inducements. I think it's an abomination.<br /></blockquote>No, Dave, it's competition based on PRICE.&nbsp; You may think it's an abomination.&nbsp; Well, of course you do, just like&nbsp; American Airlines CEO <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Crandall">Robert Crandall</a>, who famously got caught trying to fix airline prices with his competitors.<br /><br />He could go the other way and say "Well, I'm not willing to pay the usual X% agent fees, I will only pay .5X %."&nbsp; And you know what?&nbsp; Agents will line up to take the contract anyway.&nbsp; As much as David Falk doesn't want to compete on price (what member or an oligopoly does!?), you can't break the laws of supply and demand.<br /> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

</feed>
